Kodi Malonda a Mankhwala pakati pa China ndi US Adzapita Kuti Pakati pa Kukwera kwa Misonkho?

Pa Epulo 2, 2025, Donald Trump adasaina malamulo awiri akuluakulu a "reciprocal tariff" ku White House, ndikuyika "tariff yocheperako" ya 10% kwa ogwirizana nawo amalonda oposa 40 omwe US ​​​​ili ndi zofooka zamalonda nawo. China ikukumana ndi tariff ya 34%, yomwe, kuphatikiza ndi 20% yomwe ilipo, idzakhala 54%. Pa Epulo 7, US idakulitsanso kusamvana, ndikuwopseza kuti iwonjezera tariff ya 50% pa katundu waku China kuyambira pa Epulo 9. Kuphatikiza kukwera katatu kwapitako, kutumiza kunja kwa China ku US kungakumane ndi tariff yokwera mpaka 104%. Poyankha, China iyika tariff ya 34% pa katundu wochokera ku US. Kodi izi zidzakhudza bwanji makampani opanga mankhwala am'nyumba?

Malinga ndi deta ya 2024 yokhudza mankhwala 20 apamwamba ochokera ku China ochokera ku US, zinthuzi zimayang'ana kwambiri propane, polyethylene, ethylene glycol, gasi wachilengedwe, mafuta osaphika, malasha, ndi ma catalyst—makamaka zinthu zopangira, zinthu zoyambira zokonzedwa, ndi ma catalyst omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito popanga mankhwala. Pakati pawo, ma hydrocarbons osaphika acyclic ndi propane wothira madzi ndi 98.7% ndi 59.3% ya zinthu zomwe US ​​imatumiza, ndipo kuchuluka kwake kumafika matani 553,000 ndi matani 1.73 miliyoni, motsatana. Mtengo wa propane wothira madzi wokha unafika pa $11.11 biliyoni. Ngakhale mafuta osaphika, gasi wachilengedwe wothira madzi, ndi malasha ophikira nawonso ali ndi mtengo wapamwamba wotumizira kunja, magawo awo onse ali pansi pa 10%, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zosavuta kusintha kuposa zinthu zina zamankhwala. Misonkho yobwezera ikhoza kuonjezera ndalama zotumizira kunja ndikuchepetsa kuchuluka kwa zinthu monga propane, zomwe zingakweze ndalama zopangira ndikulimbitsa kupezeka kwa zinthu zoyambira pansi. Komabe, zotsatira zake pa mafuta osakonzedwa, gasi wachilengedwe, ndi malasha opangidwa kuchokera kunja zikuyembekezeka kukhala zochepa.

Kumbali yotumiza kunja, mankhwala 20 apamwamba kwambiri ochokera ku China omwe adatumizidwa ku US mu 2024 anali olamulidwa ndi mapulasitiki ndi zinthu zina zokhudzana nazo, mafuta a mchere, mafuta a mchere ndi zinthu zoyeretsera, mankhwala achilengedwe, mankhwala osiyanasiyana, ndi zinthu za rabara. Mapulasitiki okha ndi omwe adatenga zinthu 12 mwa zinthu 20 zapamwamba, ndipo katundu wotumizidwa kunja ndi wofunika $17.69 biliyoni. Mankhwala ambiri ochokera ku US ndi ochepera 30% ya ndalama zonse zomwe China ili nazo, ndipo magolovesi a polyvinyl chloride (PVC) ndi omwe ali apamwamba kwambiri pa 46.2%. Kusintha kwa mitengo kungakhudze mapulasitiki, mafuta a mchere, ndi zinthu za rabara, komwe China ili ndi gawo lalikulu kwambiri lotumiza kunja. Komabe, ntchito zamakampani aku China padziko lonse lapansi zingathandize kuchepetsa kusokonezeka kwa mitengo.

Poganizira za kukwera kwa mitengo ya zinthu, kusakhazikika kwa mfundo kungasokoneze kufunikira ndi mitengo ya mankhwala ena. Mumsika wogulitsa kunja ku US, magulu akuluakulu monga zinthu zapulasitiki ndi matayala angakumane ndi mavuto aakulu. Pazinthu zochokera ku US, zinthu zopangira monga propane ndi saturated acyclic hydrocarbons, zomwe zimadalira kwambiri ogulitsa aku America, zitha kuwona zotsatirapo zazikulu pa kukhazikika kwa mitengo ndi chitetezo cha zinthu za mankhwala zomwe zili pansi pa nthaka.