Mu 2022, chifukwa cha mitengo yokwera ya malasha osaphika komanso kukula kwa mphamvu zopangira m'nyumba pamsika wa methanol wamkati, yadutsa mumkhalidwe wa "W" vibration ndi amplitude yayikulu yoposa 36%. Poyembekezera 2023, akatswiri amakampani amakhulupirira kuti msika wa methanol wa chaka chino upitilizabe kupitiliza ndi mkhalidwe wa macro ndi momwe mafakitale akusinthira. Ndi kusintha kwa ubale wa kupereka ndi kufunikira komanso kusintha kwa mtengo wazinthu zopangira, akuyembekezeka kuti kufunikira kwa kupanga kudzakula nthawi imodzi, msika udzakhala wokhazikika komanso wokhazikika. Ikuwonetsanso makhalidwe a kuchepetsa kukula kwa mphamvu zopangira, kusintha kwa kapangidwe ka ogula, ndi kusinthasintha kambiri pamsika. Nthawi yomweyo, zotsatira za zinthu zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja pamsika wamkati zitha kuwonekera makamaka mu theka lachiwiri la chaka.
Kukula kwa mphamvu kumachepa
Malinga ndi ziwerengero kuchokera ku Henan Chemical Network, mu 2022, mphamvu ya methanol m'dziko langa inali matani 5.545 miliyoni, ndipo mphamvu yatsopano yopangira methanol padziko lonse lapansi inali ku China. Pofika kumapeto kwa chaka cha 2022, mphamvu yonse yopangira methanol m'dziko langa inali pafupifupi matani 113.06 miliyoni, zomwe zimapangitsa 59% ya mphamvu yonse yopangira padziko lonse lapansi, ndipo mphamvu yopangira inali pafupifupi matani 100 miliyoni, kuwonjezeka kwa 5.7% pachaka.
Han Hongwei, wachiwiri kwa purezidenti wa bungwe la Henan Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, anati mu 2023, mphamvu ya kupanga methanol m'dziko langa ikupitirira kukula, koma kukula kudzachepa. Mu 2023, mphamvu ya methanol yatsopano m'dziko langa ikhoza kukhala pafupifupi matani 4.9 miliyoni. Panthawiyo, mphamvu yonse ya kupanga methanol m'dziko muno idzafika matani 118 miliyoni, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi chaka kwa 4.4%. Pakadali pano, chipangizo chatsopano chopangidwa ndi malasha kupita ku methanol chatsika kwambiri, makamaka chifukwa cha kukwezedwa kwa cholinga cha "kabotolo kawiri" komanso ndalama zambiri zogulira mankhwala a malasha. Ngati mphamvu yatsopanoyi ingasinthidwe bwino kukhala mphamvu yeniyeni yopangira mtsogolomo iyeneranso kulabadira malangizo a ndondomeko ya "Dongosolo la Zaka Khumi ndi Zinayi" lokonzekera makampani atsopano a mankhwala a malasha, komanso kusintha kwa malamulo oteteza chilengedwe ndi malasha.
Malinga ndi malipoti a zomwe zanenedwa pamsika, kuyambira pa Januware 29, mtengo wamalonda wa methanol wapakhomo wakwera kufika pa 2,600 yuan (mtengo wa tani, womwewo pansipa), ndipo mtengo wa doko wakwera kufika pa 2,800 yuan, kukwera kwa mwezi uliwonse kwafika pa 13%. "Zotsatira za kukhazikitsidwa kwa mphamvu zatsopano pamsika zitha kuwonekera mu theka lachiwiri la chaka, ndipo akuyembekezeka kuti kukweranso kwa mtengo wa methanol kumayambiriro kwa chaka kukuyembekezeka kupitirira." Han Hongwei adatero.
Kusintha kwa kapangidwe ka kagwiritsidwe ntchito ka zinthu
Munthu amene akuyang'anira pulojekiti ya Zhongyuan Futures Methanol anati chifukwa cha kupewa ndi kuwongolera mliriwu komanso kufooka kwa chuma cha dziko lonse, kapangidwe ka methanol mtsogolo kadzasinthanso. Pakati pawo, liwiro la chitukuko cha malasha -to-olefins omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito pafupifupi 55% lingachepe, ndipo kugwiritsa ntchito mafakitale achikhalidwe akuyembekezeredwa kukula kachiwiri.
Cui Huajie, munthu woyang'anira Henan Ruiyuanxin's Chemical Management, adati zosowa za olefins zakhala zofooka kuyambira 2022, ndipo ngakhale kuti msika wa methanol wosaphika wasinthidwa ndi zinthu zosokoneza, udakali wokwera kwambiri. Pamitengo yokwera, malasha -to-olefin amasunga kutayika kwa zinthu chaka chonse. Chifukwa cha izi, chitukuko cha malasha -to-olefin chinawonetsa zizindikiro zocheperachepera. Ndi pulojekiti yayikulu yoyeretsera ndi mankhwala ya njira imodzi yapakhomo mu 2022 -Shenghong refining ndi kupanga kwathunthu, pulojekiti ya Slipon methanol olefin (MTO) ya methanol idzakhala matani 2.4 miliyoni m'malingaliro. Kuchuluka kwenikweni kwa ma olefins pa methanol kudzachepa kwambiri.
Malinga ndi manejala wa Henan Energy Group, pankhani yachikhalidwe cha methanol, mapulojekiti ambiri a acetic acid adzayambitsidwa kuyambira 2020 mpaka 2021 chifukwa cha phindu lalikulu, ndipo mphamvu yopanga acetic acid yakhala ikuwonjezeka pachaka ndi matani 1 miliyoni m'zaka ziwiri zapitazi. Mu 2023, matani 1.2 miliyoni a acetic acid akuyembekezeka kuwonjezeredwa, kutsatiridwa ndi matani 260,000 a methane chloride, matani 180,000 a methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) ndi matani 550,000 a N, n-dimethylformamide (DMF). Ponseponse, kukula kwa kufunikira kwa makampani achikhalidwe cha methanol kukukulirakulira, ndipo njira yogwiritsira ntchito methanol m'nyumba ikuwonetsanso njira yosiyana yopangira, ndipo kapangidwe ka kagwiritsidwe ntchito kangasinthe. Komabe, mapulani opanga mphamvu zatsopanozi m'mafakitale akale amtunduwu nthawi zambiri amakhala mkati mwa theka lachiwiri kapena kumapeto kwa chaka, zomwe sizidzakhala ndi chithandizo chokwanira pamsika wa methanol mu 2023.
Zodabwitsa pamsika sizingapeweke
Malinga ndi momwe zinthu zilili panopa, Shao Huiwen, katswiri wofufuza msika, anati mphamvu zopangira methanol m'nyumba zakhala zikuchulukirachulukira, koma chifukwa cha mtengo wokwera, zinthu zopangira methanol zitha kupitirirabe kukhudzidwa, kaya mphamvu zatsopano zopangira methanol zitha kukonzedwa mu 2023 malinga ndi dongosololi malinga ndi dongosololi. Kupanga kukuyenera kuwonedwabe, ndipo kupanga kukuchitikanso mu theka lachiwiri la chaka, zomwe zidzakhala zabwino popanga msika wa methanol mu theka loyamba la 2023.
Poganizira za njira yopangira zida zatsopano za methanol zakunja, mphamvu yopangira imakhala yaikulu mu theka lachiwiri la chaka. Kupanikizika kwa kutumiza zinthu kunja kungawonekere bwino mu theka lachiwiri la chaka. Ngati kutumiza zinthu kunja kwa mtengo wotsika kukwera, msika wa methanol wa m'dziko muno udzakumanabe ndi zotsatira za zinthu zotumizidwa kunja mu theka lachiwiri la chaka.
Kuphatikiza apo, mu 2023, makampani akale a methanol ndi mafakitale omwe akutukuka kumene akukonzekera kuyika mayunitsi atsopano popanga mayunitsi, omwe mphamvu yatsopano ya MTO makamaka ndi kupanga kophatikizana, mafuta oyera a methanol ali ndi msika wowonjezereka m'munda wa mphamvu zatsopano, kufunikira kwa methanol kukuyembekezeka kuwonjezeka, koma kuchuluka kwa kukula kungapitirire kuchepa. Msika wa methanol wakunyumba wonse ukadali mu mkhalidwe wochuluka. Akuyembekezeka kuti msika wa methanol wakunyumba udzakwera kaye kenako ndikukhazikika mu 2023, ndipo kuthekera kosintha mu theka lachiwiri la chaka sikungathetsedwe. Komabe, chifukwa cha mtengo wokwera wa malasha osaphika ndi gasi wachilengedwe, n'kovuta kukonza msika wa methanol kwakanthawi kochepa, ndipo kugwedezeka konse sikungapeweke.
Akatswiri a zamakampani anati kukula kwapakati pa mphamvu zopangira methanol m'zaka zisanu zikubwerazi kukuyembekezeka kukhala pakati pa 3% mpaka 4%. Nthawi yomweyo, ndi kuphatikiza mafakitale ndi kukweza ukadaulo, matani opitilira miliyoni imodzi a chipangizo chophatikiza methanol ndi olefin akadali chida chachikulu, mpweya wobiriwira ndi njira zina zomwe zikubwera zidzakhala zowonjezera. Methanol kupita ku aromatics ndi methanol kupita ku petulo zidzalandiranso mwayi watsopano wopititsa patsogolo kukula kwa mafakitale, koma chipangizo chodziyimira chokha chikadali chitukuko chachikulu, mphamvu yamitengo idzakhala m'manja mwa mabizinesi akuluakulu otsogola, ndipo kusintha kwakukulu pamsika wa methanol kukuyembekezeka kusinthidwa.
Nthawi yotumizira: Feb-08-2023