Chaka cha 2023 chikukulirakulira. Ndi kukhathamiritsa kwa njira zopewera ndi kuwongolera mliri, mphamvu za njira zokhazikitsira kukula ndi zotsatira zotsika, mabungwe angapo ofufuza amaneneratu kuti kukula kwa GDP ku China kudzabweranso kwambiri chaka chino.Monga mizati yachuma cha dziko, makampani opanga mankhwala amagwirizanitsa zinthu zosiyanasiyana ndi mphamvu kumtunda, pamene kumunsi kwa mtsinjewo kumagwirizana mwachindunji ndi zosowa za tsiku ndi tsiku za anthu.Mu 2023, makampani opanga mankhwala akuyenera kuganizira za kusinthasintha kwazomwe zikuyenda komanso kusintha kwamayendedwe, ndiye ndi madera ati omwe adzakhale amphamvu kwambiri?Pofuna kukhutiritsa owerenga, njira zogulira mafuta ndi mankhwala amakampani achitetezo monga Huaxin Securities, New Century Securities, Changjiang Securities ndi China Merchants Securities azikonzedwa bwino.
Msonkhano waposachedwa wa Central Economic Work Conference unanena momveka bwino kuti kuyesetsa kukulitsa zofuna zapakhomo, ndipo kusintha kwaposachedwa kwa mfundo zowongolera miliri kwathandizira kuchira kwa msika wa ogula kunyumba.Pachiyembekezo chambiri, mabizinesi angapo amakhulupirira kuti: Mu 2023, kufunikira kwa zinthu zina zamankhwala kukuyembekezeka kuyambiranso kukula, ndipo mbale yatsopano yamafuta yomwe ikukhudzidwa pakukweza mphamvu zatsopano, kusungirako mphamvu, semiconductor ndi makampani ankhondo apitilizabe. kukhala ndi bizinesi yayikulu.Pakati pawo, zida za semiconductor, zida za photovoltaic, zida za lithiamu ndi zina ndizoyenera kusamala kwambiri za osunga ndalama.
Zida za semiconductor: gwiritsani ntchito mwayi wolowa m'malo mwanyumba kuti mupititse patsogolo kupita patsogolo
Mu 2022, chifukwa cha nyengo yazachuma padziko lonse lapansi komanso kusinthasintha kwa kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka anthu.Koma kawirikawiri, makampani a semiconductor aku China akukulirakulirabe.
Guoxin Securities Research Report inanena kuti kuchuluka kwa zida za semiconductor m'dziko langa kunali pafupifupi 10% mu 2021, ndipo kunalibe mwayi wokhudzana ndi kulemera ndi mpikisano.Komabe, m'kupita kwa nthawi, makampani ophatikizana ozungulira dziko langa adzayamba njira yodziyimira payokha.Zikuyembekezeka kuti zida zapakhomo ndi zida zitha kupeza zambiri komanso mwayi, ndipo njira ina yapakhomo ikuyembekezeka kufupikitsidwa.
M'zaka zaposachedwa, kufunikira kwa mapulogalamu a semiconductor ndi misika ya ogula kwakula pang'onopang'ono.Mu 2021, kugulitsa kwa semiconductor padziko lonse lapansi kudafika madola 555.9 biliyoni aku US, kuwonjezeka kwa US $ 45.5 biliyoni kuposa 2020;ikuyembekezeka kupitiliza kukula mu 2022, ndipo kugulitsa kwa semiconductor kudzafika US $ 601.4 biliyoni.Pali mitundu yambiri ya zida za semiconductor, ndipo atatu apamwamba pamsika ndi zowotcha za silicon, mpweya, ndi kuumba kopepuka.Kuphatikiza apo, gawo la msika la zotsekemera zopukutira ndi zopukutira, zomatira zomatira, lithography, mankhwala onyowa, ndi zolinga za sputtering ndi 7.2%, 6.9%, 6.1%, 4.0%, ndi 3.0%, motsatana.
Lipoti la Guangfa Securities Research limakhulupirira kuti kudula m'munda wa zida za semiconductor (mankhwala amagetsi) kudzera mu kafukufuku wokhazikika ndi chitukuko kapena kuphatikiza ndi kupeza ndi njira yodziwika bwino yamabizinesi opanga mankhwala kufunafuna kusintha m'zaka zaposachedwa.Ngakhale makampani osintha bwino atha kupeza misika yayikulu pomwe akupeza bizinesi yothamanga, tabweretsa kukula kwapawiri.Pakutukuka kwachangu kwamakampani opanga ma semiconductor apanyumba, makampani ofananirako adaperekanso mwayi wabwino wolowa m'malo.Makampani ena omwe ali ndi mphamvu za R & D zolimba komanso milingo yamakasitomala opambana, komanso kusintha kwabwino kwazinthu ndikukweza akuyembekezeka kugawana kukula kwachangu kwamakampani a semiconductor.
Ping An Securities Research akuti pali zinthu zambiri monga "silicon cycle" ndi macroeconomic cycles, ndipo makampani a semiconductor akuyembekezeka kutsika mu 2023.
Lipoti la Western Securities Research Report likukhulupirira kuti kuwonjezeka kwa kayendetsedwe ka kunja kwa US kudzafulumizitsa njira zina zapakhomo za zida za semiconductor.Iwo ali ndi chiyembekezo cha zida za semiconductor, zida ndi zida zofananira, ndi msika wa silicon carbide.
Photovoltaic Material: Biliyoni khumi -level msika wa POE ukudikirira kuti udutse
Mu 2022, pansi pa kukwezedwa kwa ndondomeko ya dziko langa, chiwerengero cha makhazikitsidwe atsopano m'makampani opangira photovoltaic chinawonjezeka kwambiri, ndipo kufunika kwa filimu ya photovoltaic guluu kunakulanso.
Photovoltaic guluu filimu zopangira amagawidwa mu mitundu iwiri: ethylene -ethyl acetate community (EVA) ndi polyolefin elastomer (POE).EVA, monga zopangira zamakono zamakono za photovoltaic guluu filimu, ali ndi digiri yapamwamba yodalira kunja, ndipo ali ndi malo akuluakulu okhazikika m'tsogolomu.Panthawi imodzimodziyo, zikuyembekezeka kuti kufunikira kwa EVA m'munda wa filimu ya photovoltaic guluu m'dziko langa mu 2025 akhoza kufika ku 45.05%.
POE ina yodziwika bwino yopangira mafuta imatha kugwiritsidwa ntchito ku photovoltaic, magalimoto, zingwe, thovu, zida zapakhomo ndi zina.Pakalipano, filimu ya guluu ya photovoltaic yakhala malo akuluakulu ogwiritsira ntchito POE.Malinga ndi "China Photovoltaic Industry Development Road Map (2021 Edition)", gawo la msika wa filimu yapanyumba ya POE guluu ndi filimu ya thovu ya polyethylene (EPE) mu 2021 yakwera mpaka 23.1%.M'zaka zaposachedwa, ndi kukwera kosalekeza kwa zigawo za photovoltaic m'dziko langa ndi kulowa kosalekeza kwa POE mu filimu ya guluu ya photovoltaic, zofuna zapakhomo za POE zawonjezeka kwambiri.
Komabe, chifukwa njira yopangira POE ili ndi zotchinga zazikulu, pakali pano, makampani apakhomo alibe mphamvu ya POE, ndipo kugwiritsa ntchito POE m'dziko langa kumadalira zogulitsa kunja.Kuyambira 2017, mabizinesi apakhomo apanga motsatizana zinthu za POE.Wanhua Chemical, Oriental Shenghong, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Satellite Chemistry ndi mabizinesi ena apadera akuyembekezeka kukwaniritsa m'malo mwa POE mtsogolomo.
Zida za batri ya lithiamu: kutumizidwa kwa zida zinayi zazikuluzikulu zawonjezeka
Mu 2022, galimoto yatsopano yamagetsi yaku China komanso msika wosungira mphamvu batire ya lithiamu idakhalabe yokwera, ndikupangitsa kuti katundu wa batire a lithiamu achuluke kwambiri.Malinga ndi data ya China Automobile Association, kuyambira Januware mpaka Novembala 2022, kupanga ndi kugulitsa magalimoto atsopano amphamvu zoweta anamaliza 6.253 miliyoni ndi 6.067 miliyoni, motero, kuwonjezeka kwapakati pa chaka, ndipo gawo la msika lidafika 25%.
High-Tech Industry Research Institute (GGII) ikuyembekezeka kugulitsa magalimoto atsopano opitilira 6.7 miliyoni mu 2022;zikuyembekezeredwa kuti msika watsopano wamagalimoto aku China upitilira 9 miliyoni mu 2023. Kutumiza kwa batri ya lithiamu kupitilira 150%.Kukula kwakukulu kwa kutumiza kwa batri la lithiamu kwayendetsa zida zinayi zazikuluzikulu zabwino, zoipa, diaphragm, electrolyte, ndi zida zina za batri ya lithiamu monga lithiamu hexfluorophosphate ndi zojambulazo zamkuwa kumlingo wosiyanasiyana.
Deta imasonyeza kuti mu theka loyamba la 2022, China Lithium Electric Electronic Materials inatumiza matani 770,000, kuwonjezeka kwa 62% chaka-chaka;katundu wa zinthu zoipa elekitirodi anali matani 540,000, kuwonjezeka kwa 68% chaka - pa-chaka;55%;kutumizidwa kwa electrolyte kunali matani 330,000, kuwonjezeka kwa 63% chaka ndi chaka.Ponseponse, mu 2022, kutumizidwa kwathunthu kwa batire yayikulu ya lithiamu ku China kunakhalabe kukula.
GGII imalosera kuti msika wa batire wa lithiamu wapakhomo udzadutsa 1TWh mu 2023. Pakati pawo, kutumiza kwa batri yamagetsi kumayembekezereka kupitirira 800GWh, ndipo kutumiza kwa batri yosungiramo mphamvu kudzaposa 180GWh, yomwe idzayendetsa katundu wa mabatire anayi akuluakulu a lithiamu kuti achuluke. .
Ngakhale mitengo ya lithiamu ore ndi mchere wa lithiamu inagwa mu December 2022. Komabe, pamaso pa ogulitsa, izi makamaka chifukwa cha zotsatira za off-season, ndipo "inflection point" ya mitengo ya lithiamu siinafike.
Huaxi Securities amakhulupirira kuti kusinthasintha kwa mtengo wa lifiyamu mchere ndi yachibadwa kusinthasintha kwa nyengo pachimake cha makampani, osati "inflection mfundo".Shen Wanhongyuan Securities akukhulupiriranso kuti ndi kutulutsidwa kwina kwa mphamvu zopangira zida zopangira mu 2023, momwe phindu lamakampani amtundu wa batire la lithiamu lidzapitilira kuyambira pamwamba mpaka pansi.Zhejiang Business Securities akukhulupirira kuti kuvomereza kwapakatikati kwa zida za lithiamu ndikokulirapo kuposa zomwe zimafunikira mu theka lachiwiri la 2023.
Nthawi yotumiza: Jan-10-2023