Chaka cha 2023 chikulowa mwachangu. Ndi kukonzedwa bwino kwa mfundo zopewera ndi kuwongolera mliri, mphamvu ya njira zokhazikitsira kukula komanso zotsatira zochepa, mabungwe angapo ofufuza akuneneratu kuti kukula kwa GDP chaka ndi chaka ku China kudzakwera kwambiri chaka chino. Monga makampani ofunikira kwambiri pa chuma cha dziko, makampani opanga mankhwala amalumikiza zinthu zosiyanasiyana ndi mphamvu kumtunda, pomwe otsika akukhudzana mwachindunji ndi zosowa za anthu tsiku ndi tsiku. Mu 2023, makampani opanga mankhwala ayenera kuganizira kusinthasintha kwa kayendedwe ka zinthu ndi kusintha kwa njira, kotero ndi madera ati omwe adzakhala tuyere wamphamvu kwambiri? Kuti akhutiritse owerenga, njira zogulira mafuta ndi mankhwala zamakampani ogulitsa zinthu monga Huaxin Securities, New Century Securities, Changjiang Securities ndi China Merchants Securities zidzakonzedwa bwino.
Msonkhano waposachedwa wa Central Economic Work unanena momveka bwino kuti kuyesetsa kuyenera kupangidwa kuti kuwonjezere kufunikira kwa dzikolo, ndipo kusintha kwaposachedwa kwa mfundo zowongolera mliri kwafulumizitsa kuchira kwa msika wa ogula m'dzikolo. Malinga ndi zomwe zikuyembekezeredwa, makampani angapo ogulitsa mankhwala amakhulupirira kuti: Mu 2023, kufunikira kwa zinthu zina zamankhwala kukuyembekezeka kubwezeretsa kukula, ndipo mbale yatsopano ya mankhwala yomwe ikukhudzidwa ndi kukweza mphamvu zatsopano, kusungira mphamvu, mafakitale a semiconductor ndi ankhondo ipitilizabe kukhala ndi bizinesi yayikulu. Pakati pawo, zipangizo za semiconductor, zipangizo za photovoltaic, zida za lithiamu ndi zina zotero ndizofunikira kwambiri kwa amalonda.
Zipangizo za semiconductor: gwiritsani ntchito mwayi wosintha zinthu m'nyumba kuti mufulumizitse kupita patsogolo
Mu 2022, chifukwa cha chilengedwe cha zachuma padziko lonse lapansi komanso kusinthasintha kwa kayendetsedwe ka chuma cha mafakitale komanso kubwerezabwereza kwa mliriwu, makampani onse amagetsi adakumana ndi mavuto ena ogwirira ntchito. Koma kawirikawiri, makampani opanga zinthu zamagetsi ku China akukulirakulirabe.
Lipoti la Kafukufuku wa Guoxin Securities linanena kuti kuchuluka kwa zipangizo zamagetsi zamagetsi m'dziko langa kunali pafupifupi 10% mu 2021, ndipo kunali kofooka pankhani ya kulemera kwa magulu ndi mpikisano. Komabe, mtsogolomu, makampani opanga zinthu zamagetsi m'dziko langa adzayamba njira yatsopano yodziyimira pawokha. Zikuyembekezeka kuti zipangizo ndi zida zapakhomo zitha kupeza zinthu zambiri komanso mwayi wambiri, ndipo njira ina yosinthira zinthu zapakhomo ikuyembekezeka kufupika.
M'zaka zaposachedwapa, kufunikira kwa ntchito za semiconductor ndi misika ya ogula kwawonjezeka pang'onopang'ono. Mu 2021, malonda apadziko lonse a semiconductor adafika madola 555.9 biliyoni aku US, kuwonjezeka kwa US $ 45.5 biliyoni mu 2020; akuyembekezeka kupitiliza kukula mu 2022, ndipo malonda a semiconductor adzafika US $ 601.4 biliyoni. Pali mitundu yambiri ya zipangizo za semiconductor, ndipo zitatu zapamwamba pamsika ndi ma silicon wafers, mpweya, ndi kuumbidwa kowala. Kuphatikiza apo, gawo la msika wa ma polishing fluid ndi polishing pads, lithography adhesive reagents, lithography, wet chemicals, ndi sputtering target ndi 7.2%, 6.9%, 6.1%, 4.0%, ndi 3.0%, motsatana.
Lipoti la Kafukufuku wa Guangfa Securities likukhulupirira kuti kudula gawo la zipangizo zamagetsi (mankhwala apakompyuta) kudzera mu kafukufuku wachilengedwe ndi chitukuko kapena kuphatikiza ndi kugula ndi njira yodziwika bwino yomwe mabizinesi a mankhwala amafunira kusintha m'zaka zaposachedwa. Ngakhale makampani opambana osintha amatha kupeza mitengo yapamwamba pamsika pomwe akupeza makampani othamanga, tayambitsa mafunde akukula kawiri. Mu mafunde akukula mwachangu kwa makampani opanga zamagetsi apakhomo, makampani okhudzana ndi zinthu zina adayambitsanso mwayi wabwino wolowa m'malo mwa makampani akunja. Makampani ena omwe ali ndi mphamvu zamphamvu za R & D komanso makasitomala opambana, komanso kusintha ndi kukweza bwino zinthu akuyembekezeka kugawana chitukuko chachangu cha makampani opanga zamagetsi.
Kafukufuku wa Ping An Securities Research akuti pali zinthu zambiri monga "kuzungulira kwa silicon" ndi kuzungulira kwachuma, ndipo makampani opanga ma semiconductor akuyembekezeka kutsika mu 2023.
Lipoti la Kafukufuku wa Western Securities likukhulupirira kuti kuwonjezeka kwa ulamuliro wotumiza kunja kwa dziko la US kudzafulumizitsa njira ina yakunja ya zipangizo za semiconductor. Ali ndi chiyembekezo pa zipangizo za semiconductor, zigawo zake ndi zida zina zokhudzana nazo, komanso msika wa silicon carbide.
Zipangizo za Photovoltaic: Msika wa POE wa mabiliyoni khumi ukuyembekezera kufalikira
Mu 2022, motsatira kukwezedwa kwa mfundo za dziko langa, chiwerengero cha makina atsopano ogwiritsira ntchito magetsi opangidwa ndi ...
Zipangizo zopangira filimu ya Photovoltaic glue zimagawidwa m'mitundu iwiri: ethylene-ethyl acetate community (EVA) ndi polyolefin elastomer (POE). EVA, monga zipangizo zamakono zopangira filimu ya photovoltaic glue, imadalira kwambiri kutumizidwa kunja, ndipo ili ndi malo ambiri oti igwiritsidwe ntchito mtsogolo. Nthawi yomweyo, akuyembekezeka kuti kufunikira kwa EVA m'munda wa filimu ya photovoltaic glue m'dziko langa mu 2025 kungafike pa 45.05%.
POE ina yodziwika bwino ingagwiritsidwe ntchito pa photovoltaic, magalimoto, zingwe, thovu, zipangizo zapakhomo ndi zina. Pakadali pano, filimu ya glue yopakidwa ndi photovoltaic yakhala malo ogwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri a POE. Malinga ndi "China Photovoltaic Industry Development Road Map (2021 Edition)", gawo la msika wa filimu ya glue ya POE yakunyumba ndi thovu la polyethylene (EPE) mu 2021 lawonjezeka kufika pa 23.1%. M'zaka zaposachedwapa, chifukwa cha kukwera kosalekeza kwa kutulutsa kwa zinthu za photovoltaic mdziko langa komanso kulowa kosalekeza kwa POE mu filimu ya glue ya photovoltaic, kufunikira kwa POE yakunyumba kwawonjezeka pang'onopang'ono.
Komabe, chifukwa njira yopangira POE ili ndi zopinga zambiri, pakadali pano, makampani am'nyumba alibe mphamvu ya POE, ndipo kugwiritsa ntchito POE konse mdziko langa kumadalira zinthu zochokera kunja. Kuyambira 2017, makampani am'nyumba akhala akupanga zinthu za POE motsatizana. Wanhua Chemical, Oriental Shenghong, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Satellite Chemistry ndi makampani ena achinsinsi akuyembekezeka kupeza njira yolowa m'malo mwa POE m'nyumba mtsogolo.
Zipangizo za batri ya Lithium: kutumiza kwa zipangizo zinayi zazikulu kwawonjezeka kwambiri
Mu 2022, msika wosungira mphamvu zamagalimoto atsopano amagetsi ku China komanso mabatire a lithiamu unakhalabe wokwera, zomwe zinapangitsa kuti kutumiza zinthu za mabatire a lithiamu kukwere kwambiri. Malinga ndi deta ya China Automobile Association, kuyambira Januware mpaka Novembala 2022, kupanga ndi kugulitsa magalimoto atsopano amagetsi m'nyumba kunafika pa 6.253 miliyoni ndi 6.067 miliyoni motsatana, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti kuwonjezeka kwapakati pachaka, ndipo gawo la msika linafika pa 25%.
Bungwe la High-Tech Industry Research Institute (GGII) likuyembekezeka kugulitsa magalimoto atsopano opitilira 6.7 miliyoni mu 2022; akuyembekezeka kuti msika wa magalimoto atsopano opitilira mphamvu ku China udzapitirira 9 miliyoni mu 2023. Mu 2022, kuchuluka kwa kutumiza mabatire a lithiamu ku China kukuyembekezeka kupitirira 100%, kuchuluka kwa kutumiza mabatire amphamvu kukuyembekezeka kupitirira 110%, ndipo kuchuluka kwa kutumiza mabatire a lithiamu kusungira mphamvu kupitirira 150%. Kukula kwakukulu kwa kutumiza mabatire a lithiamu kwapangitsa kuti zinthu zinayi zazikulu zikhale zabwino, zoipa, diaphragm, electrolyte, ndi zina za batire ya lithiamu monga lithium hexfluorophosphate ndi copper foil kukhale kosiyanasiyana.
Deta ikuwonetsa kuti mu theka loyamba la chaka cha 2022, China Lithium Electric Electronic Materials inatumiza matani 770,000, kuwonjezeka kwa 62% pachaka; kutumiza kwa zinthu zopanda ma electrode kunali matani 540,000, kuwonjezeka kwa 68% pachaka; 55%; kutumiza kwa ma electrolyte kunali matani 330,000, kuwonjezeka kwa 63% pachaka. Ponseponse, mu 2022, kutumiza konse kwa mabatire anayi akuluakulu a lithiamu ku China kunapitirira kukula.
GGII ikuneneratu kuti msika wa mabatire a lithiamu m'dziko muno udzapitirira 1TWh mu 2023. Pakati pawo, kutumiza mabatire amphamvu kukuyembekezeka kupitirira 800GWh, ndipo kutumiza mabatire osungira mphamvu kudzapitirira 180GWh, zomwe zidzapangitsa kuti kutumiza konse kwa mabatire anayi akuluakulu a lithiamu kuchuluke.
Ngakhale mitengo ya lithiamu ore ndi mchere wa lithiamu inatsika mu Disembala 2022. Komabe, m'maso mwa ogulitsa, izi zimachitika makamaka chifukwa cha zotsatira za nyengo yopuma, ndipo "kukwera" kwa mitengo ya lithiamu sikunafike.
Huaxi Securities ikukhulupirira kuti kusinthasintha kwa mtengo wa mchere wa lithiamu ndi kusinthasintha kwabwinobwino kwa nyengo yayikulu yamakampani, osati "kukwera kwa mitengo". Shen Wanhongyuan Securities ikukhulupiriranso kuti ndi kutulutsidwa kwina kwa mphamvu zopangira zinthu zopangira mu 2023, momwe phindu la unyolo wa unyolo wa mabatire a lithiamu lidzapitilira kuyambira pamwamba mpaka pansi. Zhejiang Business Securities ikukhulupirira kuti kuvomereza pang'ono kwa zinthu za lithiamu ndi kwakukulu kuposa momwe zimafunikira mu theka lachiwiri la 2023.
Nthawi yotumizira: Januwale-10-2023