Poyembekezera msika wa mapangidwe mu 2023, akatswiri amakampani amakhulupirira kuti msika ukhoza kukhala ndi magwiridwe antchito apamwamba komanso otsika. Chaka chino chikadali chaka chomwe mphamvu zopangira styrene zakula mofulumira. Kuphatikizika kwa theka la chaka chotsutsana ndi kutaya zinthu kwatha. Zogulitsa zakunja kapena kusesa kuti zichepetse msika wakunyumba. Nthawi yomweyo, mphamvu yotsika imatulutsidwa. Besium pansi pa 2022, phindu ndi lovuta kuwonjezera.
Kukula kwa zokolola kungakhale 17%
"Mu 2022, mphamvu ya styrene yakunyumba ikadali pa njira yokulirakulira kwambiri, ndipo chiŵerengero cha kukula chikuyembekezeka kufika pa 20%, chomwe chidzakhala chinthu chofulumira kwambiri cha unyolo wamakampani mu unyolo wamakampani. Chifukwa cha kutulutsa mwachangu kwa mphamvu yatsopano yopangira styrene, kuwonjezeka kwa kupanga ndi kugulitsa kudzawonjezeka, ndipo chiŵerengero cha kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu sichidzakhala chabwino momwe zingathere. Akuyembekezeka kuti chikhoza kukhala pafupifupi 78%. "Katswiri wa Kim Lianchuang, Wang Li, akukhulupirira."
Wang Li adati mu 2023, zipangizo zatsopano monga Lianyungang Petrochemical, Zibo Junchen, Guangdong Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical zitha kupangidwa, ndipo kukula kwa mphamvu zopangira styrene kukuyembekezeka kufika pa 23%. Ngati kuyimitsidwa kwa ntchito kuchedwa chifukwa cha kufalikira kwa kusiyana pakati pa kupezeka ndi kufunikira, kukula kwa mphamvu zopangira styrene chaka chino kungakhale 17%.
Chifukwa cha izi, msika wa styrene wa chaka chino ukuyenda bwino kapena uli ndi chizolowezi chokwera komanso chotsika, ndipo mtengo wapakati wa chaka chino udzakhala wochepera 2022. Makamaka, zolosera za kukwera kwa mitengo mu kotala lachiwiri. Kumbali imodzi, chifukwa cha kupitilira kwa styrene chaka chino, kukakamizidwa pakupanga mu kotala loyamba kunali kwakukulu, ndipo kufunikira kwa zomwe zidachitika pa Chikondwerero cha Masika kudachepa. Kumbali ina, kufunikira mu kotala lachiwiri kukuyembekezeka kubwereranso, ndipo kupanga kotsika kudzatsatiranso. Mu kotala lachitatu ndi lachinayi, kupezeka kwa styrene kuli pamlingo wapamwamba ndipo kufunikira kunachepa pang'onopang'ono, ndipo mtengo ukhoza kuchepa. Ndikofunikira kudziwa kuti panthawi yokonza chipangizo cha styrene pakati, pakhoza kukhala mafunde amisika yomwe ikukwera, koma kuwonjezekako ndi kochepa.
Kuphatikiza apo, chinthu china chomwe chimakhudza kusinthasintha kwa msika wa styrene chaka chino ndikuti anti-dumping idzatha. Pa June 22, 2018, Unduna wa Zamalonda udalengeza chigamulo chomaliza cha kafukufuku wotsutsana ndi dumping wochokera ku South Korea, Taiwan ndi United States. Pambuyo pa kutha kwa anti-dumping mu June chaka chino, China, monga dziko lalikulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi lomwe limagwiritsa ntchito styrene, idzakopa chidwi cha opanga ma styrene padziko lonse lapansi. Ngakhale kuti mphamvu yatsopano yopangira styrene yakunyumba ikutulutsidwa nthawi zonse ndipo kudalira kutumiza kunja kukupitirira kuchepa, kuyenda kwa zinthu kudzapitirira, ndipo njira yatsopano ya arbitrage idzapangidwa pang'onopang'ono, kapena idzaika mavuto pamsika wakunyumba mkati mwa nthawi inayake.
Malo opezera phindu akupitirira kuchepa
Mu 2022, kupatula makampani opanga ingenuylene mu kotala lachitatu, nthawi yotsalayo inali yotayika kwambiri. Kutayika kwa malingaliro mpaka 1,000 yuan (mtengo wa tani, womwewo pansipa), ndi avareji ya 379 yuan pachaka.
Han Xiaoxiao, katswiri wa Longzhong Information, akukhulupirira kuti kuwonjezera pa kutulutsa kwakukulu kwa mphamvu zatsopano zopangira, chinthu china chofunikira ndichakuti mtengo wokwera ukupitilirabe kukakamiza. Benzene yoyera ndi imodzi mwa zinthu zazikulu zopangira styrene, ndipo kusinthasintha kwa mitengo yake ndikofunikira kwambiri pakuyenda bwino kwa styrene.
Mu theka loyamba la chaka cha 2022, mtengo wa benzene yoyera unakwera kwambiri chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa zinthu zomwe zilipo komanso mtengo wapamwamba kwambiri wakunja, ndipo unachepa mu theka lachiwiri la chaka chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa zinthu zomwe zilipo komanso kuchuluka kwa zinthu zomwe zili m'madoko, ndipo mtengo wapakati pachaka ukuyandikira 9,000 yuan.
M'zaka ziwiri zapitazi, kusiyana kwa mitengo pakati pa benzene yoyera ndi styrene kwachepa kwambiri. M'zaka zapitazo, kusiyana kwa mitengo pakati pa benzene yoyera ndi styrene kunasungidwa mu 2000 ~ 2500 yuan, kuchepetsedwa kufika pa 1000 ~ 1500 yuan m'zaka ziwiri zapitazi, ndipo nthawi zina 200 ~ 500 yuan yokha. Mu 2022, makampani opanga styrene anali ndi zinthu zabwino zopindulitsa zopangira zinthu zopangira.
Mu 2023, mtengo wa benzene yoyera mu theka loyamba la chaka kapena kugwedezeka kwakukulu, theka lachiwiri la chaka kapena chiopsezo chachikulu cha kugwa. Pali mafakitale ambiri otsika a benzene yoyera. Kuchokera pamalingaliro a kuchuluka kwa kugwiritsidwa ntchito, styrene ikadali chinthu chachikulu kwambiri chogwiritsidwa ntchito kwa benzene yoyera, chomwe chili pafupifupi 47%. Nthawi yomweyo, chaka chino mphamvu ya styrene ikupitilira kukula mwachangu, kufunikira kwa benzene yoyera kukukwerabe. Mu "kawiri kaboni", chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa ntchito kwa makampani opanga coking sikukwanira, superimposed resource supply supply synchronization yochepa, ikuyembekezeka chaka chino mtengo wa benzene yoyera ukuyembekezeka kukhalabe ndi mawonekedwe apamwamba.
Pa mtengo wokwera komanso kusunga, kupanga ndi kugwira ntchito kwa makampani a styrene omwe ali pansi pa msewu kukukumana ndi mavuto aakulu, mwayi wopeza phindu kapena kupitirizabe kuchepetsedwa.
Kusagwirizana kwa kupereka ndi kufuna sikumveka
Polystyeyrene (PS), Hair Polystyeyrene (EPS), Acryl -butadiene -Tartylene Total Poin (ABS) ndi mitundu itatu yayikulu ya styrene, yomwe imagwiritsa ntchito pafupifupi 70% ya styrene. Anthu amkati amakhulupirira kuti mphamvu yonse yopanga mitundu itatu yayikulu iyi ya styrene chaka chino ndi yotsika. Malinga ndi ziyembekezo za kusintha mkati, ngati styrene ili ndi chiyembekezo chogwiritsa ntchito zinthu zopangira, kukula kwenikweni kwa ABS, PS, ndi EPS kukuyembekezeka. Kudali 12%, 6%, ndi 3%, komwe kunali kotsika kwambiri kuposa kukula kwa styrene ya 17%. Izi zikutanthauzanso kuti kutsutsana pakati pa kupezeka ndi kufunikira kwa styrene kukuvutabe kuthetsa bwino.
Mu 2023, kuchuluka kwa styrene kumadzaza pang'onopang'ono. Ngakhale kuti kufunikira kukuyembekezeka kuwonjezeka, kuchuluka kwa kukula kumakhala kochepa kwambiri kuposa kukula kwa styrene, ndipo kutumiza kunja kudzapitiliza kukhala njira yofunika kwambiri yochepetsera kukakamizidwa kwa kupanga ndi kugulitsa kuti kuchepetse kupanga ndi kugulitsa. Ponena za kutumiza kunja, ndi kuthetsedwa kwa msonkho wotsutsana ndi kutaya katundu wa styrene, mitengo ya China ndi South Korea idzatsika kwambiri. Zikuyembekezeka kuti kuchuluka konse kwa styrene yochokera kunja mu theka lachiwiri la chaka kudzawonjezeka pang'ono. Komabe, kuwonjezeka kwa kutumiza kunja kwa styrene sikudzakhala kwakukulu kwambiri chifukwa cha kuwonjezeka kwa mphamvu yampikisano ya RMB.
Nthawi yotumizira: Feb-16-2023