Makampani opanga mankhwala akukumana ndi kukwera kwamitengo "kwambiri" mu 2025, motsogozedwa ndi kukonzanso kwazomwe zimafunikira komanso kugawanso kwamtengo wapatali pamayendedwe onse. Pansipa pali kuwunika kwa oyendetsa omwe akukwera kwamitengo, malingaliro omwe amabweretsa kusiyana kwa phindu, njira zokonzanso makampani, ndi mwayi wopeza ndalama.
I. Madalaivala Okhazikika Okwera Mtengo
1. Kusintha kwa Kusintha kwa Zopangira Zopangira
- Kusalinganika kwamafuta osafunikira: Kuchepetsa kupanga kwa OPEC + kuphatikiza ndi kukula kochepa kuchokera kwa opanga omwe si a OPEC kwasunga Brent crude kuposa $100 / mbiya.
- Kufuna kwamphamvu kwa zida zatsopano zamagetsi: Lithium carbonate (gawo la mafakitale a mabatire a LFP) mitengo idakwera 120% YoY, pomwe zosungunulira ma electrolyte za DMC zidadutsa ¥10,000/tani.
- Mtengo wa carbon wodziwikiratu: Mitengo ya kaboni ya CBAM ya EU tsopano ikuphimba mankhwala ofunikira monga ammonia opangidwa ndi methanol.
2. Structural Supply-Side Kulimba
- Kusamutsa mphamvu ku Europe: BASF ndi zimphona zina zidatseka 30% ya mphamvu yaku Germany ya ammonia, ndikusinthira kupanga ku US Gulf Coast.
- Kusintha kwa mbali yaku China 2.0: Zofunikira pakukweza zachilengedwe ndiukadaulo m'mafakitale a utoto ndi titanium dioxide zidathandizira kutuluka kwa opanga ang'onoang'ono mpaka apakatikati.
- Zovuta za Geopolitical Logistics: Vuto la Nyanja Yofiyira lidayambitsa kuchuluka kwa 300% pamitengo yotumizira ku Asia-Europe, kufalikira kwamitengo yazinthu zomwe sizikhudzidwa ndi mayendedwe ngati TDI.
3. Mtengo Wodutsa kuchokera ku Technological Shifts
- Kugulitsa zinthu zopangidwa ndi bio: Mitengo ya PLA imalamula kuti 40% ikhale yotsika mtengo kuposa PE yachikhalidwe, pomwe Apple ndi Tesla amatseka mapangano anthawi yayitali.
- Kukhazikika kwamankhwala a semiconductor: Mitengo ya Ultra-pure electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid idaposa $50,000/ton, ndi 15% premium kuposa njira zina zaku Japan/South Korea.
II. Phindu Divergence Map
| Gawo | Kusintha kwa ROE (2024 vs. 2025) | Kukula kwa Mtengo | Madalaivala Ofunika |
| Zida Zatsopano Zamagetsi | +8.2pct→ 21.5% | 35-50% | Kupambana kwa batri yokhazikika |
| Ma Chemicals ambiri | -3.5pct → 6.8% | 10-15% | Kuwonongeka kwa njira yotengera malasha |
| Specialty Chemicals | +5.1pct→ 18.3% | 25-40% | Zida zamagalimoto zopepuka zimafunikira |
| Agrochemicals | +2.3 peresenti → 12.7% | 18-22% | Kutengera mbewu za GMO + Chilala cha South America |
III. Kusamuka kwa Mtengo Kupyolera mu Supply Chain
1. Upstream Resource Holders (mwachitsanzo, opanga phosphate & lithiamu) amalamulira mphamvu zamitengo, ndi makampani monga Yuntianhua akupeza>50% gross margins mu kotala limodzi.
2. Midstream High-Barrier Segments:
- Ma Fluoropolymers: Ndalama zolekanitsa za PVDF zidagunda ¥80,000/tani.
- Mankhwala apamwamba kwambiri: Zofunikira za Semiconductor-grade isopropanol zoyera zakwera kuchokera ku 99.99% mpaka 99.9999%.
3. Othandizira Zosintha Pansi pa Mtsinje: Makampani ngati Covestro adayambitsa zitsanzo za "malipiro ogwirira ntchito", ndikuwonjezera kusunga makasitomala ndi 30%.
IV. 2025 Zotsogola Zofunikira
1. Mawindo Olowetsa Zamakono:
- Mtengo wa Ethane umachepetsa, ndipo PDH project ROI ikugwera pansi pa 5%.
- Ndalama zopangira BDO zochokera ku Bio-based zatsika 25% poyerekeza ndi njira zamafuta.
2. Rebalancing Regional:
- Middle East sulfur-chemical hub: Saudi's SABIC inamanga chomera cha 2M ton/chaka chotsika mtengo cha sulfuric acid.
- Zovala zakumwera chakum'mawa kwa Asia: Nippon Paint Vietnam imagwira ntchito 120% kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu.
3. Kuwunika kwa ESG:
- Mapulojekiti obiriwira a hydrogen-based ammonia amalandila ma premium 3x.
- EU yoletsa pagalimoto yokhala ndi PFAS> 60% CAGR ya njira zina.
V. Investment Decision Matrix
Strategic Allocation zofunika:
- Zida zotchinga kwambiri: zisa za uchi za Aramid, zoyambira za silicon carbide.
- Zosokoneza ndondomeko: Plasma-based adiponitrile synthesis, CO₂-to-DMC conversion.
- Opambana obisika: Zovala za Photoresist, zosindikizira zamlengalenga.
Zidziwitso Zowopsa:
- US imakhazikitsa 15% yamitengo pazinthu zochokera ku China (zogwira ntchito Q3 2025).
- Kupambana kwa batire la sodium-ion kumatha kugwetsa kufunikira kwa zinthu za lithiamu.
Makampaniwa akukonzedwanso kwambiri kuyambira 2008. Makampani omwe ali ndi luso losiyanitsa luso komanso luso lophatikizana molunjika, komanso osewera omwe ali ndi zilolezo zopanga zochepa, ndizofunikira kwambiri. Pakuchulukirachulukira kwamitengo, mabizinesi omwe amasunga chiwongola dzanja m'masiku 30 adzawonetsa kulimba kwa phindu.
Nthawi yotumiza: May-30-2025