Ngakhale theka lachiwiri la 2022, mankhwala amphamvu ndi zinthu zina zidalowa m'gawo lowongolera, koma akatswiri a Goldman Sachs mu lipoti laposachedwa adatsindikabe kuti zinthu zofunika zomwe zimatsimikizira kukwera kwa mphamvu zamagetsi ndi zinthu zina sizinasinthe, zidzabweretsabe kubweza kowala. chaka chamawa.
Lachiwiri, a Jeff Currie, mkulu wa Goldman Sachs Commodity Research, ndi Samantha Dart, mkulu wa kafukufuku wa gasi wachilengedwe, akuyembekeza kuti chiwerengero cha zinthu zazikulu monga makampani opanga mankhwala, S&P GSCI Total Return Index chikhoza kupindula 43% mu 2023 kumbuyo kwa 20% kuphatikiza kubwerera chaka chino.
(S&P Kospi Total Commodities Index, source: Investing)
GOldman Sachs akuyembekeza kuti msika m'gawo loyamba la 2023 ukhoza kukhala ndi zovuta zina pakugwa kwachuma, koma kupezeka kwamafuta ndi gasi kupitilira kukwera.
Kuphatikiza pa kafukufuku wa ogulitsa, capital ikugwiritsanso ntchito golide weniweni ndi siliva kuwonetsa chiyembekezo chake chanthawi yayitali pazamalonda.Malinga ndi deta yomwe idayikidwa ndi Bridge Alternative, makoleji apamwamba 15 omwe amayang'ana msika wazinthu chaka chino, kukula kwa zinthu zomwe zimayendetsedwa ndi 50% mpaka $ 20,7 biliyoni.
Goldman Sachs adatsimikiza kuti popanda ndalama zokwanira zopangira mphamvu zopanga zolemera, zinthu zidzapitirirabe kugwera m'nthawi yakusowa kwanthawi yayitali, ndipo mtengo upitilira kukwera ndikusinthasintha kwambiri.
Potengera zolinga zenizeni, Goldman Sachs amayembekeza kuti mafuta amafuta, omwe pano akuzungulira pafupifupi $80 pa mbiya, adzakwera mpaka $105 pakutha kwa 2023;ndipo mtengo wamtengo wamafuta achilengedwe aku Asia utha kukweranso kuchokera pa $ 33/million mpaka $ 53.
Posachedwapa, pakhala zizindikiro za kuchira pamsika wokhoza, ndipo mankhwala awonjezeka kwambiri.
Pa Disembala 16, pakati pa zinthu 110 zowunikira Zhuochuang Information, zinthu 55 zidawonjezeka m'njira iyi, zomwe zimawerengera 50.00%;Zogulitsa za 26 zidakhazikika, zowerengera 23.64%;Zogulitsa 29 zidagwa, zomwe zidapangitsa 26.36%.
Kuchokera pamawonedwe azinthu zinazake, PBT, poliyesitala filament, ndi benhypenhydronic mwachiwonekere zapezedwa.
Mtengo PBT
Posachedwapa, mitengo ya msika wa PBT yakwera, ndipo phindu lawonjezeka.Kuyambira December, makampani oyambirira anayamba otsika kutsogolo kwa opanga malo kufufuza zolimba, ndi zopangira BDO kukokera ntchito, ndi mantha osatha kutenga katundu maganizo chinawonjezeka, PBT msika malo kupereka zolimba, mtengo ananyamuka pang'ono, makampani. phindu linatembenuka.
PBT pure resin mitengo yamitengo ku East China
POY
Pambuyo pa "Golden Nine Silver Ten", kufunikira kwa ma polyester filaments kwachepa kwambiri.Opanga apitilizabe kukweza phindu, ndipo cholinga cha malondawo chikupitilirabe kutsika.Kumapeto kwa Novembala, cholinga cha Poy150D chinali 6,700 yuan/ton.M'mwezi wa December, pamene kufunikira kotsiriza kunayambiranso pang'onopang'ono, ndipo chitsanzo chachikulu cha polyester filaments chinali chachikulu mu ndalama, opanga anali kugulitsa pamtengo wotsika, ndipo lipotilo linakwezedwa motsatira.Ogwiritsa ntchito m'munsi anali ndi nkhawa kuti mtengo wogula zinthu panthawi yamtsogolo unawonjezeka.Msika wamsika wa polyester filament ukupitilira kukwera.Pofika pakati pa mwezi wa December, mtengo wa Poy150D unali 7075 yuan/ton, kuwonjezeka kwa 5.6% kuchokera mwezi wapitawo.
PA
Msika wapakhomo wa benhynhydr watha pafupifupi miyezi iwiri, ndipo msika wadzetsa kutsika kopitilira muyeso.Chiyambireni sabata ino, yokhudzidwa ndi kubwezeredwa kwa msika wa benhypenichydr, phindu lamakampani apanyumba a benhypenhydrate layenda bwino.Pakati pawo, phindu lalikulu la oyandikana nawo benhypenhydrate chitsanzo kupanga ndi 132 yuan/tani, kuwonjezeka 568 yuan/tani kuchokera December 8, ndipo kuchepa ndi 130,28%.Mtengo wazinthu zopangira watsika, koma msika wa bonalide wakhazikika ndikuwonjezekanso, ndipo makampani asintha kuchoka pakutayika.Phindu lalikulu la chitsanzo cha pyrine ndi 190 yuan / tani, kuwonjezeka kwa 70 yuan / toni kuchokera pa December 8, ndi dontho la 26.92%.Zili choncho makamaka chifukwa mtengo wamakampani opanga zinthu zopangira wakweranso, pomwe mtengo wamsika wa benic anhydride udakwera kwambiri, ndipo kutayika kwamakampani kudachepa.
Kunena zowona, pali akatswiri ena omwe tsopano akuganiza kuti zotsatira za kugwa kwachuma zachepetsedwa.Ed Morse, wamkulu wa kafukufuku wazinthu ku Citigroup, adati sabata ino kuti kusintha komwe kungachitike pamisika yazamalonda, kutsatiridwa ndi kugwa kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi, kungayambitse chiwopsezo cha chuma.
Ndi madzulo a m'bandakucha, kudikirira kuti zofuna zitsike, malinga ndi Youliao.Mu 2013, zomwe dziko la China likufuna lidakhudzidwa ndi mliriwu, pomwe kukwera kwa mitengo kwapang'onopang'ono kunachepetsa kufunikira kwamayiko akunja.Ngakhale kuti msika ukuyembekeza kuti Fed ikukwera pang'onopang'ono, koma zotsatira za chuma chenicheni zidzatuluka pang'onopang'ono, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti pakhale kuchepa kwa chiwerengero cha kufunikira.Kumasulidwa kwa mfundo zopewera miliri ku China kwathandizira kuchira, koma chiwopsezo choyambirira cha matendawa chingakhalebe ndi zopinga kwakanthawi.Kuchira ku China kungayambike mu gawo lachiwiri.
Nthawi yotumiza: Dec-22-2022